Breaking Down the Rest of the Season

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The Cubs have been playing very good baseball. Unfortunately, so have the Brewers. As it stands today, the Cubs have a 3.5 game lead of Milwaukee and a 5 game lead over the Cardinals, with their elimination numbers at 8 and 7, respectively. So, theoretically, the Cubs could clinch the division this weekend. However, that is very unlikely to happen.

In order for the Cubs to clinch this weekend, they would have to sweep the Brewers, which would eliminate them (4 Brewers losses, 4 wins by division leader), leaving the Cardinals as the only team still alive in the Central, other than the Cubs. Now, if the Cardinals were to lose 3 games this weekend, they have 1 against the Reds, and 3 against the Pirates, combined with the Cubs sweeping the Brewers, that would officially clinch it for the Cubs. I don’t see this happening

I just wanted to clear that up, because I have seen a lot of people confused by how the magic number works and thinking the Cubs would clinch if they swept the Brewers. Clearly that is false, as they would need a lot of help from the Pirates/Reds as well.

Now, let’s take a look at what would need to happen to prevent the Cubs from winning the NL Central. With 11 games remaining (4 against the Brewers, 4 against the Cardinals, and 3 against the Reds), if the Cubs were to go 8-3, they would win the Central, even if the Brewers or Cardinals went undefeated the rest of the way. And yes, I understand that with 4 game series’ against both the Brewers and Cardinals, it would be impossible for the Cubs to lose 3 games and the Brewers/Cardinals win out. With the way the Cubs have been playing, 8-3 isn’t exactly a stretch. In fact, they are 7-1 in their last 8 games, including a 7 game winning streak that was ended last night in Tampa.

All in all, it would take a lot for the Brewers or Cardinals to come out of this season with a Division title. If the Cubs win 3 of 4 (or even 2 of 4) this weekend, it makes it VERY difficult for the Brewers to have a chance. The Cubs just need to take care of business and they have nothing to worry about. I’m gonna leave it at that, because I don’t want to be the next jinx, provided something goes terrible wrong.

 

Be sure to follow me on twitter @ChiCubsCoverage and check out my podcast, The Grand Slam, on iTunes!

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