It’s no secret: Justin Wilson has been bad since coming to the Cubs. His 6.23 ERA and 142 ERA- show us that. For those of you that don’t know, an ERA- of 100 is average, and the lower the better. Having a 142 means he has been 42% worse than average. Now, I’m still a believer that he will turn it around. Hopefully this year, but the Cubs still have him under contract in 2018, as well. The issue is, this guy was supposed to be our closer next year. He was supposed to be the big bullpen piece that we needed to throw out there against guys like Andrew Miller in the postseason. He has certainly not been that, in fact, he’s in danger of not even making the playoff roster. So, let’s take a look and compare his stats from Detroit and his stats from the Cubs.
ERA – Detroit: 2.68 — Chicago: 6.23
ERA- – Detroit: 60 — Chicago: 142 (so, 40% above average to 42% below average)
FIP- – Detroit: 72 — Chicago: 90 (much better than I expected
BB/9 – Detroit: 3.57 — Chicago: 9.69
K/9 – Detroit: 12.27 — Chicago: 11.08
BB% – Detroit: 10.2% — Chicago: 20.6%
K% – Detroit: 35% — Chicago: 23.5%
In other words, his stats in nearly every single category are significantly worse since coming to the Cubs. But here’s the kicker: there’s no physical reason for this. According to coaches and scouts his mechanics are fine and unchanged. It appears everything wrong with him is all in his head, and therein lies the issue. If it were mechanical, it could be fixed by throwing a few side bullpen sessions, dealing with a mental problem is a completely different thing. For now, it appears we will just have to wait this thing out and hope for the best. On the bright side, he hasn’t given up any home runs since coming to the Cubs!
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